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When will Gorsuch be confirmed by the senate, what is the best option for President Trump on the immigration ban

Posted on | February 10, 2017 | 2 Comments

Senate rules typically give the Supreme Court nominee 6 weeks before the confirmation hearing. During this time he will fill out the necessary forms and will meet with members of the Senate. This means that around March 14th GOP will likely hold the Judiciary committee hearing. As GOP has the Senate majority, they have the majority in all the committees.  Committee chairman, Chuck Grassley (R-IA) can expedite the committee hearing and have Gorsuch confirmed within 2 days. So, around March the 16th Gorsuch nomination will go to the full senate. I believe that Mitch McConnell will use the nuclear option, meaning simple 51 vote majority, which was used to confirm Justice Clarence Thomas with 52 votes. Mitch McConnell will also use cloture, meaning the debate will be limited to 30 hours, which means that Gorsuch can be confirmed and sworn in by March 18th. 6 weeks waiting period might be shortened if Gorsuch submits this papers quickly and the Judiciary committee by majority agrees to start the committee hearing before the customary 6 weeks period ends.

In regards to the immigration ban, President Trump has 4 options:

  1. send the temporary stay appeal to Justice Kennedy now (Kennedy is in charge of the 9th circuit). Kennedy might rule in favor of Trump, might deny it or might refer to the full court. If he denies it, Trump can forward the appeal to Justice Clarence Thomas, who already stated that the ban is legal and constitutional and the law is on Trump’s side. If the ban is referred to the full court, they are likely to split 4/4, In case of the split the decision of the 9th Circuit stays.
  2. Trump can make some changes in the ban by excluding Green Card holders and issue it immediately and will have a better chance of having it upheld by the Supreme Court.
  3. Trump might issue the amended ban, which excludes the Green Card Holders, in 1 month, when Gorsuch is confirmed.  This third option will give President Trump the best chance for success reasonably quickly. 
  4. Trump might simply ignore the temporary stay and wait for the full adjudication of the case on the merits and refer it to the Supreme Court for final adjudication, however, the final adjudication of the case will likely reach the Supreme Court in a year or two, Trump is not likely to wait so long.
Category: Uncategorized

Comments

2 Responses to “When will Gorsuch be confirmed by the senate, what is the best option for President Trump on the immigration ban”

  1. KenArmstrong
    February 10th, 2017 @ 9:18 am

    Here is a better option. As he is now famous for, double down and sign a new executive order. Make it include more countries. He already has all of their objections, so make sure it covers those. Here is the problem. This is literally war, although it has not yet become violent. These “people” are going to keep on doing this. The only thing they understand is the same as the Muslims. A slap on the head. I listened to a lot of their arguments, and as lawyers, are want to do, they quote precedents. When you rule by precedents quite naturally the law evolves into chaos created by years of bad decisions. This is about the constitution, plain and simple.
    Their precedents are undermining the constitution. The left does not have the least respect for the nation. They are the product of decades of education by World Government educators. At some point this has to be confronted and looks like the man in office has the will. Let the chips fall where they may.

  2. Darcy
    February 10th, 2017 @ 10:25 am

    The problem, as I see it, is Kennedy. He often sides with the liberals. If he does, then it’s 5-4. I also see Roberts as wobbly.

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