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When the government fears the people, there is liberty.
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We are still waiting on decision of 2 GOP senators: Murkowski and Collins and 4 Dems: Manchin, Heitkamp, Donnelly and Tester. Kavanaugh will be confirmed if both Murkowski and Collins abstain and all Dems vote NO. Pence will cast a deciding vote on 49-49. Kavanaugh might get as many as 55 votes

Posted on | September 28, 2018 | No Comments

Two Republican senators could make or break Kavanaugh’s nomination

1) Sen. Lisa Murkowski (AK): Murkowski is seen as perhaps one of the biggest swing votes for Kavanaugh’s confirmation. After the hearing, she remained undecided. But this week, she emphasized the importance of listening to the accusers.

“We are now in a place where it’s not about whether or not Judge Kavanaugh is qualified,” she told the New York Times Monday night. “It is about whether or not a woman who has been a victim at some point in her life is to be believed.”

On Tuesday, she also told reporters that she sees the merit of an independent FBI investigation into the allegations, something Senate Democrats and the accusers have called for. “It would sure clear up all the questions, wouldn’t it?” Murkowski said.

Even before these allegations, Murkowski’s vote was uncertain. She is one of the few in the Republican Senate conference who supports abortion rights — an issue that was raised heavily during Kavanaugh’s initial hearings.

She has also been under pressure from Alaska’s Native population to reject Kavanaugh’s nomination, out of concern for his positions on health care and American Indian tribes’ rights. A group of Alaskan state lawmakers with a focus on tribal and rural representation, as well as the Alaska Federation of Natives, which represents 20 percent of the state’s population, have come out against Kavanaugh. The president of the AFN reportedly has been meeting with Murkowski throughout the confirmation process.

2) Sen. Susan Collins (ME): Collins, like Murkowski, has been pegged as a potential swing vote ever since Kavanaugh was nominated, in large part due to her support of abortion rights. But Collins has seemed largely comfortable with Kavanaugh on that front, saying she was confident he would not overturn Roe v. Wade, which guarantees a right to abortion in the US.

On the allegations of sexual misconduct, Collins has been clear that she believes Ford and Ramirez should be heard. She called on Ford to testify and said Ramirez should talk under oath with committee staff members as well. But Collins has been reluctant to say with certainty whether she finds their allegations credible.

Recently, she floated what appears to be a right-wing conspiracy theory about Ford’s yearbook with reporters after images of Kavanaugh’s high school yearbook page were released.

“There are so many rumors that there are issues with Christine Ford’s yearbook as well,” Collins said. “I don’t know whether that’s accurate or not. I don’t know what to make of someone’s high school yearbook.”

It’s not clear specifically what Collins was referring to when she said “rumors.” But Alex Jones of Infowars has spread uncorroborated photographs of what appears to be a yearbook from Holton Arms, Ford’s alma mater, and called Ford a “hussy” in her high school days.

Asked if Collins was talking about the Alex Jones “rumors,” Collins’s spokesperson said that “Senator Collins was referencing the rumors in circulation about both Judge Kavanaugh and Dr. Ford. She believes that Dr. Ford’s allegations are serious and should be heard by the Senate Judiciary Committee.”

Members Of Congress Return To Capitol Hill Amidst New Kavanaugh Accusations
Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is among the Republicans whose vote on Kavanaugh has been uncertain from the beginning.
 Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

There are still undecided red-state Democrats

3) Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (ND): The North Dakota senator is one of three who voted for Gorsuch last spring. While her office told Vox’s Dylan Scott early this week that she remains undecided, Heitkamp has also been vocal about the importance of Ford’s testimony and of listening to women who have made allegations about sexual misconduct.

“It takes courage for any woman to speak up about sexual assault, and we need to respect Prof. Ford by listening to her and hearing her story,” Heitkamp wrote in a statement on Twitter.

On the one hand, Heitkamp is among a group of red-state lawmakers who are in the fight of their political lives in this upcoming midterm election — and Republicans have been hammering her on the Kavanaugh vote as a wedge issue that could influence more conservative voters. On the other hand, the sexual misconduct allegations have actually provided red-state Democrats the political cover they need to justify a vote against him.

“North Dakotans expect more of their elected officials than partisan judgements,” Heitkamp said in a previous statement about Kavanaugh’s nomination. “Politics should not be part of the vetting process or the decision-making process.”

4) Sen. Joe Donnelly (IN): Donnelly is another Democrat who broke ranks last year to back Gorsuch and could do the same this time around. He’s previously called for a delay in the Judiciary Committee’s vote in the wake of Ford’s allegations, however, and he’s also said that both Ford’s and Ramirez’s accusations warrant an FBI investigation.

“The allegations raised by Dr. Ford and Ms. Ramirez against Judge Kavanaugh are serious, merit further review, and I believe should be investigated by the FBI,” Donnelly said in a statement. “I will continue to get as much information as I can, including by following Thursday’s scheduled hearing.”

Given his emphasis on the hearing, it’s likely that his impressions of Ford’s and Kavanaugh’s testimonies will be a key factor in how he ultimately decides to vote.

It’s also important to note that Donnelly is an anti-abortion Democrat, so he may not object to Kavanaugh over fears of overturning Roe v. Wade.

Sens Collins And Donnelly Introduce Forty Hours Is Full Time Act
Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) is running in a competitive Senate race where he’s been trying to prove himself as willing to vote with Republicans.
 Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

5) Sen. Joe Manchin (WV): Manchin is the third Democrat who crossed party lines in the Gorsuch vote. He’s known for his independent streak and previously quipped that he is not susceptible to being whipped by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer in order to vote a certain way. “I’ll be 71 years old in August, you’re going to whip me? Kiss my you know what,” Manchin said earlier this summer.

Manchin has also said he thinks Kavanaugh deserves a “right to clear himself” during Thursday’s hearing. “All this is extremely serious and we take it very serious, but again these are allegations that are made and they have to come forth and prove their statements and he has a right to clear himself,” Manchin said on Tuesday, according to a report from Talking Points Memo.

Apart from the sexual misconduct allegations, Manchin has expressed concerns about the possible effect Kavanaugh could have on protections afforded to people with preexisting conditions guaranteed by the Affordable Care Act. Given a Texas lawsuit that’s winding its way through the courts, it’s very possible that there will be another challenge to the ACA that the Supreme Court will have to consider.

Manchin has said he’s particularly interested in how Kavanaugh would rule on this matter. “The Supreme Court will ultimately decide if nearly 800,000 West Virginians with pre-existing conditions will lose their healthcare,” he’s said. “This decision will directly impact almost 40 percent of my state, so I’m very interested in his position on protecting West Virginians with pre-existing conditions.”

6) Sen. Jon Tester (MT): Tester may not have voted for Gorsuch, but he is among the slate of Democrats who are seen as vulnerable in this year’s upcoming midterm elections. A vote against Kavanaugh could be levied against him as November approaches — even if the effectiveness of such an attack has been diffused somewhat. Tester has said the sexual misconduct allegations are one of several issues on a “long list” that he’d like to talk over with Kavanaugh. Others include abortion rights and campaign finance.

“Look, we’re paying close attention to the allegations. I’ve got other issues too that I want to talk to him if we can ever get an in-person [meeting] with him,” Tester said, according to the Washington Examiner. “We’ve got a long list. And these allegations will also be a part of it.”

Tester has emphasized, too, that he thinks additional pieces of Kavanaugh’s full record should be released and pushed for a more comprehensive trove of documents in August. “I pledged to Montanans that I would thoroughly review Judge Kavanaugh’s record by studying his perspective on the laws of our nation, our Constitution, our civil liberties, and the values that are important to Montanans,” he said in a statement at the time.

https://www.vox.com/2018/9/26/17902190/brett-kavanaugh-confirmation-vote-count-senate

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