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When the government fears the people, there is liberty.
-- Thomas Jefferson

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becomes a revolutionary act.  -- George Orwell

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fight you, then you win.  -- Mahatma Gandhi

Bush’s suspension of the campaign will not give Rubio as much advantage as the pundits claim

Posted on | February 20, 2016 | 2 Comments

Pundits claim that Bush’s suspension of his campaign will give Rubio a massive advantage.

This isn’ so. Today, Hannity provided polling information that showed that only a quarter of Bush’s voters put Rubio as their second choice. The rest of his votes will be divided by other candidates.

So, let’s look at the next primary, Nevada.

According to the Real Clear Politics average of polls in Nevada Trump has 42%, Cruz-20%, Rubio-19%, Kasich-7%, Carson-6%, Bush-3%. So, if Bush’s votes are divided, Trump will likely have 43%, Cruz-21% and Rubio-20%.

Similarly, when Kasich drops out, his 7% will be divided as well. Further, SC was particularly good for Rubio, as the governor, senator and a popular congressman actively campaigned for Rubio in SC. We do not see such concerted effort in Rubio’s favor in other states.

Likewise, SC was good for Cruz as it has 75%  Evangelicals, yet Cruz lost to Trump by double digits.

So, I believe that Trump will win with a larger margin in upcoming states than the 10% margin that we saw in SC.

I also believe that with Jeb Bush gone, Trump will have no need to talk about George Bush. I believe that if Trump refrains from talking about George Bush, 9/11 and Iraq war, but rather concentrates on the fact that he is the only candidate who will renegotiate free trade agreements and will bring the jobs back to the US, he will win with a larger margin.

It is important for Trump to show that both Rubio and Cruz supported TPP, a horrible anti-American globalist trade agreement. Just recently, for political expediency, after supporting TPP for months, Cruz flip-flopped on TPP, just as Clinton did.

Further, both Cruz and Rubio supported an increase in B1 visas for foreign workers, which hurts Americans.

By being presidential and calm during debates and sticking to the issue of bringing jobs to American workers Trump will increase his lead and will cruise to the nomination and ultimate victory during the general election.

 

Nevada Republican Presidential Caucus

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample MoE
Trump
Cruz
Rubio
Kasich
Carson
Bush
 Spread
RCP Average 2/10 – 2/15 — — 42.0 20.0 19.0 7.0 6.0 3.0 Trump +22.0
Gravis 2/14 – 2/15 687 LV 4.0 39 23 19 9 5 5 Trump +16
CNN/ORC 2/10 – 2/15 245 LV 6.5 45 17 19 5 7 1 Trump +26
Category: Uncategorized

Comments

2 Responses to “Bush’s suspension of the campaign will not give Rubio as much advantage as the pundits claim”

  1. Leo Derosia
    February 20th, 2016 @ 11:35 pm

    We could go from a vile, evil fraud to one of best presidents ever if trump wins. I was at a trump rally in nh and his wife was only 20 feet away and even hotter in person…I think the Europeans will love her and I think she grew up near your country orly. People I respect think trump is genuine and actually loves the us

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