Taking into account proven 5.2% to 5.7% bias against Trump by NBC and CBS pollsters, we come to the conclusion that Trump is leading by 1 to 2% nationally
Posted on | September 22, 2024 | No Comments
Another example of Dems overestimating Democrats for the past 10 years. Look at the table below, CBS overestimated Democrats by 5.7% and NBC by 5.2%. Today they are claiming that Kamala leads by 4% and 5% respectively. Making a correction based on their prior errors, we come to the conclusion that Trump must be leading by 1% to 2%
Multiple State Pollsters
2014-2022: Multiple State Pollster Scorecard
| Pollster | Average Error | States Polled | Error Favored Republicans |
Error Favored Democrats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMass Lowell | 2.2 | 4 | 36% | 64% |
| Susquehanna | 3.0 | 5 | 54% | 46% |
| Suffolk University | 3.7 | 11 | 38% | 62% |
| Emerson College | 3.9 | 31 | 46% | 54% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 4.3 | 25 | 84% | 16% |
| New York Times/Siena | 4.3 | 16 | 23% | 77% |
| InsiderAdvantage | 4.4 | 10 | 59% | 41% |
| FOX News | 4.4 | 15 | 32% | 68% |
| CNN | 4.6 | 13 | 27% | 73% |
| PPP (D) | 4.7 | 18 | 23% | 77% |
| Quinnipiac University | 4.7 | 13 | 20% | 80% |
| SurveyUSA | 4.7 | 19 | 33% | 67% |
| Rasmussen Reports | 5.0 | 23 | 35% | 65% |
| NBC News/WSJ/Marist | 5.2 | 33 | 26% | 74% |
| Remington Research | 5.6 | 12 | 54% | 46% |
| CBS News/YouGov | 5.7 | 46 | 24% | 76% |
| Monmouth | 5.7 | 15 | 16% | 84% |
| Mason-Dixon | 6.1 | 6 | 17% | 83% |
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