Pollster Ann Selzer was off by as much as 10.5% in prior elections
Posted on | November 4, 2024 | 1 Comment
Final pre-election Selzer & Company polls
| Election | Democratic candidate |
Poll D % |
Actual D % |
Republican candidate |
Poll R % |
Actual R % |
Poll margin[a] |
Actual margin[b] |
Error | Ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 IA president | Bill Clinton | 46 | 50.3 | Bob Dole | 35 | 40.0 | D+11 | D+10.4 | D+0.6 | [20] |
| 1996 IA U.S. Senate | Tom Harkin | 46 | 51.8 | Jim Lightfoot | 38 | 46.7 | D+8 | D+5.1 | D+2.9 | [20] |
| 1998 IA governor | Tom Vilsack | 43 | 52.3 | Jim Lightfoot | 47 | 46.5 | R+4 | D+5.8 | R+9.8 | [21] |
| 2000 IA president | Al Gore | 44 | 48.6 | George W. Bush | 42 | 48.3 | D+2 | D+0.3 | D+1.7 | [21] |
| 2002 IA U.S. Senate | Tom Harkin | 50 | 54.2 | Greg Ganske | 41 | 43.8 | D+9 | D+10.4 | R+1.4 | [21] |
| 2002 IA governor | Tom Vilsack | 52 | 52.7 | Doug Gross | 40 | 44.6 | D+12 | D+8.2 | D+3.8 | [21] |
| 2004 IA president | John Kerry | 48 | 49.3 | George W. Bush | 45 | 49.9 | D+3 | R+0.7 | D+3.7 | [21] |
| 2004 IN president | John Kerry | 37 | 39.3 | George W. Bush | 57 | 60.0 | R+20 | R+20.7 | D+0.7 | [21] |
| 2004 IN governor | Joseph Kernan | 42 | 45.5 | Mitch Daniels | 48 | 53.2 | R+6 | R+7.7 | D+1.7 | [21] |
| 2006 IA governor | Chet Culver | 52 | 54.1 | Jim Nussle | 43 | 44.4 | D+9 | D+9.7 | R+0.7 | [21] |
| 2006 IA-01 U.S. House | Bruce Braley | 56 | 55.1 | Mike Whalen | 35 | 43.3 | D+21 | D+11.9 | D+9.2 | [21] |
| 2006 IN-07 U.S. House | Julia Carson | 42 | 53.8 | Eric Dickerson | 45 | 46.2 | R+3 | D+7.5 | R+10.5 | [21] |
| 2006 MI U.S. Senate | Debbie Stabenow | 53 | 56.9 | Mike Bouchard | 34 | 41.3 | D+19 | D+15.7 | D+3.4 | [21] |
| 2006 MI governor | Jennifer Granholm | 54 | 56.4 | Dick DeVos | 41 | 42.3 | D+13 | D+14.1 | R+1.1 | [21] |
| 2008 IA president | Barack Obama | 54 | 54.2 | John McCain | 37 | 44.6 | D+17 | D+9.6 | D+7.4 | [21] |
| 2008 IA U.S. Senate | Tom Harkin | 57 | 62.7 | Christopher Reed | 31 | 37.3 | D+26 | D+25.4 | D+0.6 | [21] |
| 2008 IN president | Barack Obama | 46 | 50.0 | John McCain | 45 | 48.9 | D+1 | D+1.0 | R+0.0 | [21] |
| 2008 IN governor | Jill Long Thompson | 36 | 40.0 | Mitch Daniels | 54 | 57.8 | R+18 | R+17.8 | R+0.2 | [21] |
| 2008 MI president | Barack Obama | 53 | 57.4 | John McCain | 37 | 41.0 | D+16 | D+16.5 | R+0.5 | [21] |
| 2008 MI U.S. Senate | Carl Levin | 53 | 62.7 | Jack Hoogendyk | 32 | 33.9 | D+21 | D+28.8 | R+7.8 | [21] |
| 2010 IA U.S. Senate | Roxanne Conlin | 30 | 33.3 | Chuck Grassley | 61 | 64.4 | R+31 | R+31.1 | D+0.1 | [21] |
| 2010 IA governor | Chet Culver | 38 | 43.3 | Terry Branstad | 50 | 52.9 | R+12 | R+9.6 | R+2.4 | [21] |
| 2012 IA president | Barack Obama | 47 | 52.2 | Mitt Romney | 42 | 46.4 | D+5 | D+5.8 | R+0.8 | [21] |
| 2014 IA U.S. Senate | Bruce Braley | 44 | 43.8 | Joni Ernst | 51 | 52.2 | R+7 | R+8.4 | D+1.4 | [21] |
| 2014 IA governor | Jack Hatch | 35 | 37.3 | Terry Branstad | 59 | 59.1 | R+24 | R+21.7 | R+2.3 | [21] |
| 2016 U.S. president | Hillary Clinton | 46 | 48.5 | Donald Trump | 43 | 46.4 | D+3 | D+2.1 | D+0.9 | [22] |
| 2016 FL president | Hillary Clinton | 45 | 47.8 | Donald Trump | 46 | 49.0 | R+1 | R+1.2 | D+0.2 | [23] |
| 2016 FL U.S. Senate | Patrick Murphy | 41 | 44.3 | Marco Rubio | 51 | 52.0 | R+10 | R+7.7 | R+2.3 | [21] |
| 2016 IA president | Hillary Clinton | 39 | 42.2 | Donald Trump | 46 | 51.8 | R+7 | R+9.5 | D+2.5 | [21] |
| 2016 IA U.S. Senate | Patty Judge | 33 | 35.7 | Chuck Grassley | 56 | 60.2 | R+23 | R+24.5 | D+1.5 | [21] |
| 2018 IA governor | Fred Hubbell | 46 | 47.5 | Kim Reynolds | 44 | 50.3 | D+2 | R+2.7 | D+4.7 | [21] |
| 2020 IA president | Joe Biden | 41 | 45.0 | Donald Trump | 48 | 53.2 | R+7 | R+8.2 | D+1.2 | [21] |
| 2020 IA U.S. Senate | Theresa Greenfield | 42 | 45.2 | Joni Ernst | 46 | 51.8 | R+4 | R+6.6 | D+2.6 | [21] |
| 2022 IA U.S. Senate | Michael Franken | 41 | 43.9 | Chuck Grassley | 53 | 56.1 | R+12 | R+12.2 | D+0.2 | [21] |
| 2022 IA governor | Deidre DeJear | 37 | 39.6 | Kim Reynolds | 54 | 58.1 | R+17 | R+18.5 | D+1.5 | [21] |
| 2024 IA president | Kamala Harris | 47 | TBD | Donald Trump | 44 | TBD | D+3 | TBD | TBD | [24] |
Category: Uncategorized
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November 4th, 2024 @ 4:39 pm
Sewlzer was off by more than 10 points regarding Bob VanderPlaats in the 2010 Republican Primary vs Branstad and Rod Roberts. The poll she conducted was very close to the Primary Election Day so it should have been closer.