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When the people fear their government, there is tyranny.
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fight you, then you win.  -- Mahatma Gandhi

Pollster Ann Selzer was off by as much as 10.5% in prior elections

Posted on | November 4, 2024 | No Comments

Final pre-election Selzer & Company polls

Election Democratic
candidate		 Poll
D %		 Actual
D %		 Republican
candidate		 Poll
R %		 Actual
R %		 Poll
margin[a]		 Actual
margin[b]		 Error Ref
1996 IA president Bill Clinton 46 50.3 Bob Dole 35 40.0 D+11 D+10.4 D+0.6 [20]
1996 IA U.S. Senate Tom Harkin 46 51.8 Jim Lightfoot 38 46.7 D+8 D+5.1 D+2.9 [20]
1998 IA governor Tom Vilsack 43 52.3 Jim Lightfoot 47 46.5 R+4 D+5.8 R+9.8 [21]
2000 IA president Al Gore 44 48.6 George W. Bush 42 48.3 D+2 D+0.3 D+1.7 [21]
2002 IA U.S. Senate Tom Harkin 50 54.2 Greg Ganske 41 43.8 D+9 D+10.4 R+1.4 [21]
2002 IA governor Tom Vilsack 52 52.7 Doug Gross 40 44.6 D+12 D+8.2 D+3.8 [21]
2004 IA president John Kerry 48 49.3 George W. Bush 45 49.9 D+3 R+0.7 D+3.7 [21]
2004 IN president John Kerry 37 39.3 George W. Bush 57 60.0 R+20 R+20.7 D+0.7 [21]
2004 IN governor Joseph Kernan 42 45.5 Mitch Daniels 48 53.2 R+6 R+7.7 D+1.7 [21]
2006 IA governor Chet Culver 52 54.1 Jim Nussle 43 44.4 D+9 D+9.7 R+0.7 [21]
2006 IA-01 U.S. House Bruce Braley 56 55.1 Mike Whalen 35 43.3 D+21 D+11.9 D+9.2 [21]
2006 IN-07 U.S. House Julia Carson 42 53.8 Eric Dickerson 45 46.2 R+3 D+7.5 R+10.5 [21]
2006 MI U.S. Senate Debbie Stabenow 53 56.9 Mike Bouchard 34 41.3 D+19 D+15.7 D+3.4 [21]
2006 MI governor Jennifer Granholm 54 56.4 Dick DeVos 41 42.3 D+13 D+14.1 R+1.1 [21]
2008 IA president Barack Obama 54 54.2 John McCain 37 44.6 D+17 D+9.6 D+7.4 [21]
2008 IA U.S. Senate Tom Harkin 57 62.7 Christopher Reed 31 37.3 D+26 D+25.4 D+0.6 [21]
2008 IN president Barack Obama 46 50.0 John McCain 45 48.9 D+1 D+1.0 R+0.0 [21]
2008 IN governor Jill Long Thompson 36 40.0 Mitch Daniels 54 57.8 R+18 R+17.8 R+0.2 [21]
2008 MI president Barack Obama 53 57.4 John McCain 37 41.0 D+16 D+16.5 R+0.5 [21]
2008 MI U.S. Senate Carl Levin 53 62.7 Jack Hoogendyk 32 33.9 D+21 D+28.8 R+7.8 [21]
2010 IA U.S. Senate Roxanne Conlin 30 33.3 Chuck Grassley 61 64.4 R+31 R+31.1 D+0.1 [21]
2010 IA governor Chet Culver 38 43.3 Terry Branstad 50 52.9 R+12 R+9.6 R+2.4 [21]
2012 IA president Barack Obama 47 52.2 Mitt Romney 42 46.4 D+5 D+5.8 R+0.8 [21]
2014 IA U.S. Senate Bruce Braley 44 43.8 Joni Ernst 51 52.2 R+7 R+8.4 D+1.4 [21]
2014 IA governor Jack Hatch 35 37.3 Terry Branstad 59 59.1 R+24 R+21.7 R+2.3 [21]
2016 U.S. president Hillary Clinton 46 48.5 Donald Trump 43 46.4 D+3 D+2.1 D+0.9 [22]
2016 FL president Hillary Clinton 45 47.8 Donald Trump 46 49.0 R+1 R+1.2 D+0.2 [23]
2016 FL U.S. Senate Patrick Murphy 41 44.3 Marco Rubio 51 52.0 R+10 R+7.7 R+2.3 [21]
2016 IA president Hillary Clinton 39 42.2 Donald Trump 46 51.8 R+7 R+9.5 D+2.5 [21]
2016 IA U.S. Senate Patty Judge 33 35.7 Chuck Grassley 56 60.2 R+23 R+24.5 D+1.5 [21]
2018 IA governor Fred Hubbell 46 47.5 Kim Reynolds 44 50.3 D+2 R+2.7 D+4.7 [21]
2020 IA president Joe Biden 41 45.0 Donald Trump 48 53.2 R+7 R+8.2 D+1.2 [21]
2020 IA U.S. Senate Theresa Greenfield 42 45.2 Joni Ernst 46 51.8 R+4 R+6.6 D+2.6 [21]
2022 IA U.S. Senate Michael Franken 41 43.9 Chuck Grassley 53 56.1 R+12 R+12.2 D+0.2 [21]
2022 IA governor Deidre DeJear 37 39.6 Kim Reynolds 54 58.1 R+17 R+18.5 D+1.5 [21]
2024 IA president Kamala Harris 47 TBD Donald Trump 44 TBD D+3 TBD TBD [24]
Category: Uncategorized

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