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According to polls Trump now has 262 electoral votes, needs 8 more to win and only 7 more for a tie to be decided in his favor by Congress

Posted on | September 14, 2016 | 9 Comments

According to the latest polls  Trump will retain all 24 states and 206 electoral votes (ev) carried by Romney.

On top of that, the latest polls show Trump leading by 4% in Florida and 5% in Ohio, the most important swing states in the nation. Trump also wins the RCP average of polls in these states.

Florida is 29 ev

Ohio- 18 ev

Trump is also leading by 5-6% in the latest polls in Iowa, which Obama carried in 2012. This will give Trump 259 electoral votes. The latest polls from Maine are very interesting, too. In Maine and Nebraska electoral votes are split, those are not winner take all states. They way it works, the winner of the popular vote in the state gets 2 ev and then 1 ev for each district he won. Maine has 2 districts. Clinton leads by 3 in district 1 and Trump leads by 10 in district 2. Since district 2 is slightly more populated and Trump leads by a much larger margin in district 2 than Clinton is leading in 1, Trump is projected to win the popular vote in ME and will get 3 ev in ME, while Clinton will get 1. Considering the upward trajectory for Trump, he might win all 4 ev in ME.

So, based on the above, Trump has at least 262 ev. Hen needs 8 more to get 270, the majority of ev, and at least 7 more to get to 269/269 tie, which will be broken by the predominantly Republican House of Representatives.

So, where can Trump get the remaining 7 ev?

Trump has 5 options:

  1. The most likely option is a combination of 2 small states, Nevada and New Hampshire. The latest polls show Trump leading in NV by 2%. In New Hampshire he is down by only 2%. The biggest bang for the buck for Trump is to  concentrate on advertising in these two small states. As the population in NH and NV is relatively small, TV and radio ads needed to cover those states will be less expensive than in a large state, like Pennsylvania,  and since Trump is close in those states, he would not need to advertise that much. NV is 6ev, NH is 4ev, added to 262, will give Trump 272-  he is the 45 th president
  2. Second option is Wisconsin. The latest Emerson poll shows Trump only 3% behind Clinton in WI. WI has a very strong GOP apparatus and get out to vote drive, since GOP governor Walker had to face a recall and ran two successful campaigns for governor as well. Additionally, the current Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, is from  WI and the GOP chairman, Rence Preibus, is from WI as well. I believe that with a combined effort and Trump’s winning populist message, Trump can go up 3 more points and carry WI.
  3. Michigan. According to the latest Emerson poll Trump is only 3 points behind  in WI.
  4. Pennsylvania. The polls in PA are going up and down, some of the polls show Trump and Clinton tied there.
  5. Combination of NV and CO. As stated, the latest polls show Trump leading in NV by 2% and today a poll came out of CO, showing Trump leading in CO by 2%.
  6.  The latest polls show that Trump is catching up to Clinton in NJ, he is only 4% behind and can make it up.
Category: Uncategorized

Comments

9 Responses to “According to polls Trump now has 262 electoral votes, needs 8 more to win and only 7 more for a tie to be decided in his favor by Congress”

  1. KBB
    September 14th, 2016 @ 2:36 pm

    I just read that Minnesota has successfully removed Trump’s name from their ballot – based on some stupid rule they have dug up.

    Trump needs to make a huge effort to campaign in Minnesota up till election day, and tell the people there that they have to write in his name, that Democrats have removed his name from the ballot

  2. Davey Crockett
    September 14th, 2016 @ 2:55 pm

    Boy, if they keep reading Orlys’ Site and check out the tabloids, each week, Trump should be incredibly way ahead, by the time the Nov. Election gets here!

    Some info I can’t post…too many copyrighted info notices…

    So will have to just post commentary info…

    Gingrich says that Hillary’s campaign is falling apart!

    And the people in several states are now actually re-thinking their vote, come election day!

    And I’m seeing a lot of info on how the govt is going to (try) to confiscate the (401-Ks) along with other savings…to pay off the damned debt that the NWO/O is trying to make America to pay for this, but we had nothing to do with any executive order to even try to stop/kill the Bill of Rights, as well.

    Man, do we need Trump in the WH!!!

  3. will
    September 14th, 2016 @ 6:37 pm

    how can we even trust the polls since land lines are used for that and many people no longer has one … i guess if they call a number and its disconnected they give it to killary

  4. Trump Supporter
    September 15th, 2016 @ 12:58 pm

    The FBI has found intruder activity in voting machines…

    But can’t post it due to copyright notice. And these people just won’t get back to me!

  5. Virginia W.
    September 15th, 2016 @ 2:00 pm

    KBB .. before spreading rumors, PLEASE do your research first. https://www.grandforksherald.com/news/4113721-trump-will-stay-minnesota-ballots-court-rules

    “ST. PAUL—Republican “Donald Trump will remain as an option for Minnesota voters, the state Supreme Court ruled on Monday.

    Wholly dismissing the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party’s petition to remove Trump from Minnesota ballots”

  6. Virginia W.
    September 17th, 2016 @ 5:31 pm

    For those who might have missed Donald Trump’s meeting with the Black & Haitian community yesterday in Miami, this is explosive. Bernard Sansariq, ex-Senate President of Haiti explains how the Clinton Crime Family ripped off people of Haiti: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=phKO2T2pMjM&feature=youtu.be

  7. Stu
    September 18th, 2016 @ 9:11 am

    KBB….please use a search engine before posting.

    Case to remove Trump from Minnnesota ballot dismissed
    https://theuptake.org/2016/09/12/case-to-remove-trump-from-minnesota-ballot-dismissed/

    CNN – Minnesota DEM effort to kick Trump off ballot fails
    https://www.cnn.com/2016/09/09/politics/minnesota-gop-donald-trump-ballot/

    Fox News – Supreme Court dismisses petition, Trump remains on ballot
    https://www.fox9.com/news/politics/204812429-story

  8. Virginia W.
    September 19th, 2016 @ 3:17 pm

    With the addition of New Mexico, a blue state and one that Trump is now 5% above her, Trump is now at 279, crooked at 259.

  9. Davey Crockett
    September 20th, 2016 @ 1:05 pm

    Virginia W:…

    That’s a great post, too, with those folks telling us what the Bonnie and Clyde have been doing!

    Some very good posts from the last several days!

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