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TaitzReport.com: Monmouth University gives Clinton 2% lead among likely voters in a poll where they over-poll Democrats and women

Posted on | July 19, 2016 | No Comments

In Monmouth poll below they gave Clinton 2% advantage, though they polled 52% women and only 48% men. They also polled 33% Democrats and only 28% Republicans.

West Long Branch, NJ – As Cleveland prepares to host the Republican National Convention, the Monmouth University Poll finds that Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump nationally has shrunk in the past month as support for third party candidates has also waned.  Trump’s pick of Indiana Gov. Mike Pence as his running mate has little immediate impact on voters’ intentions.

Clinton holds a 3 point lead over Trump among all registered voters nationally and a 2 point lead among those most likely to vote in November.  These margins are down from last month when the Democrat held a 6 point lead with registered voters and a 7 point lead with likely voters.  Currently, 43% of registered voters support Clinton and 40% support Trump, with 5% backing Libertarian Gary Johnson, 2% backing Jill Stein of the Green Party, and 2% backing another candidate.  Support among likely voters stands at 45% Clinton, 43% Trump, 5% Johnson, 1% Stein, and 2% other.  In addition to a narrowing of Clinton’s edge over the past month, the number of registered voters who say they will support a third party candidate has dropped from 15% to 9%.

Clinton has the support of 88% of Democrats and Trump has the support of 81% of Republicans – both numbers are similar to the nominees’ partisan support levels last month.  Independents now give Trump a 40% to 31% advantage, whereas they were more evenly split last month at 32% for Trump and 31% for Clinton.  Clinton, however, has a 46% to 39% edge over Trump in the all-important swing states – the ten states in 2012 that were decided by less than seven points.  This marks an insignificant change from her 41% to 36% lead in these states last month.

“Clinton still leads, but Trump is closing the margin.  The next two weeks will be crucial to determining which direction this trend goes,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

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