My analysis on what will happen next in the European war theatre
Posted on | March 28, 2014 | No Comments
Many politicians in the West are trying to ascertain what Putin’s next move is going to be.
Here is my analysis
I believe that there will be a coordinated effort in breakaway areas of Eastern and Southern Ukraine to push for a referendum similar to the one held in Crimea. This of course is a nightmare for the current government in Kiev. It is highly likely that this government will refuse any petitions for a referendum. At that time representatives of areas of Donetsk, Harkov, Herson and possibly Odessa regions will submit a petition to Russia seeking support. Those petitions will be voted on by the Russian government and of course approved. This in turn will be backed by a push in the Russian media and public depicting those areas as predominantly Russian freedom fighters, whose rights were taken away by the current pro-Western marionette government. Putin will use this domestic approval to start a blitzkrieg from both Western Russia and Transnistria. One remaining question is whether Putin will occupy only the Eastern Ukraine or the whole Ukraine and the new elections will be held in Kiev after the area was taken by Russia. It will be similar to Afghani and Iraqi elections with US tanks in the city.
If this offensive succeeds, Putin might repeat this exercise in the former satellite republics of Latvia, possibly Moldova, Lithuania and Estonia.
Obama, of course, is saying that Russia should pull its’ troops from Eastern Ukraine, however so far Putin did not pay much attention to Obama and I don’t believe he will pay much attention to Obama in the future, particularly as China already stated that it will stay away from the Ukraine matter.
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BERLIN—Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday said China had “no private interest in the Ukraine question,” dashing hopes in the West that Beijing could turn more critical of its Russian ally.
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